The analytics community has taken a plethora of data from many hockey leagues and compared what happened when a player moved from a certain league to the NHL. For example, players moving from the KHL to the NHL usually scored 80% of their KHL points. So if a player had 10 points in the KHL last season, they can expect 8 points in the NHL. (10 points x 0.80 translation factor = 8 expected points in the NHL)
Obviously there are different translation factors for different leagues. KHL points are worth more than AHL points. AHL points are worth more than NCAA or CHL points. To see the exact translations factors, click here.
Also I should note that obviously these aren’t exact. They are just baseline projections based on years of history of what similar players with similar outputs performed when transitioning to the NHL.
So let’s take a look at what we could expect if these prospects made the jump to the NHL next season.
I’m immediately going to note that Tyler Motte played on the best line in the NCAA and that greatly inflated his numbers this season. His production doubled from last season. His line had 3 of the top 4 scoring players in college hockey. So I highly doubt he would touch 40 points over a 82-game season next year.
As you can see, Nick Schmaltz would be expected to score right around a low-end second line forward next season. Hinostroza and McNeill would be expected to score like NHL 3rd liners.
Now remember, this is just scoring. It doesn’t mean a player is overall a second line or third line talent next season, it is simply how well they can score. So when we now look at D-men, note that scoring is less important for a D-man than a forward. By that I mean, a D-man can score 20 points but be horribly defensively. So remember this is simply scoring and not overall output.
Nice to see Pokka And Forsling are competent at scoring. Also, with both being young, scoring will most likely increase with development. Whereas a 25-year-old Kempny probably won’t improve more than being a 20-point scorer. Luc Snuggerud is an interesting prospect to watch.
So this should just give you a general idea at which prospects to pay attention to next season.