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  1. So, since he seems to be right in the middle of most of these stats, would you conclude a likely offer to be in the $5mil range, or do you think his overall point production (9th in the league last year) to factor in to boost that number up a bit? Because I’ve been assuming he’ll be looking for a minimum of $6mil, but these numbers tell me otherwise.

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    1. These are only some even strength numbers, but if I was Bowman at the bargaining table, I would be using this to try and drive down the cost.

      But like you said his overall production was very high. I imagine if I looked up some power play numbers number for all those players, that Panarin would be rated pretty high.

      Honestly, the number you have is what I see the final contract being. If I’m Chicago, I’m not going over $6M per year. And like you said, it’s reasonable for Panarin to want a minimum of $6M a year.

      That’s the number I’ve been using. If it’s under $6M, the Blackhawks won the deal. If It’s over $6M, Panarin won the deal. If it’s at $6M, then that’s probably a pretty fair deal.

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  2. So the real question becomes, where do they get the $6 mil from to sign him? It seems obvious with their post-season moves (especially convincing Rundblad to give up $1mil just so they could save $100k) that they are trying to build up as much of a reserve as possible, but then you have to figure Campbell is likely to have bonus money that adds a million or so onto next year’s cap. Not to mention whatever bonuses they’ve got built into Panarin’s second year ELC. What really worries me is that even before playing a single game in the NHL, Panarin had looks from half the league – but once he becomes an RFA, plenty of teams can afford to offer him $7mil or more and I’m sure he knows this, and the Hawks will basically be priced out easily. I was really hoping they would have been able to work out a deal over this summer, but unfortunately it’s starting to look like he’s more interested in testing the market as an RFA. Sadly, our best shot at retaining him will be if his performance drops this season, which will take our offensive competitiveness down significantly unless Toews and Hossa are able to bring their production back up. Seabrook’s contract would have been regrettable just based off his performance last season, but if we lose Panarin because we’re paying Seabrook $1.5mil over what he’s worth, it could end up being one of the worst moves in Hawks’ history…

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    1. Yeah, it’s always hard to look into the future, even as little as one year, because the roster changes so much. One spends a year penciling in Brandon Saad and the next thing one knows, CHI has Anisimov.

      Just brainstorming, let’s say that no players reach their bonuses. CHI currently has around $1.5Mish in Cap Space. The bonus penalty plus Scuderi retained salary adds another $4M in space. We’re up to $5.5M. Next, Kruger needs to be taken in the expansion draft, adding $3M. So CHI has $8.5M to work with if that all goes down. But so many things will most likely change that we can’t account for yet. Also the cap might go up a little next season. So, we can at least forecast a scenario where it a Panarin signing could work.

      However, CHI has such bad forward depth. My best case scenario is Panarin plays out of his mind, CHi wins a cup, and CHi deals Panarin for multiple young forwards.

      Kind of like Saad. Win a Cup, dealt him for Anisimov/Dano (who turned into Ladd). Not really young forwards but you get my point. Forward depth is the #1 issue this season and looks like it will be moving forward. When looking at Cup teams, they usually have great forward depth.

      2013 CHI had Saad, Shaw, Kruger, Stalberg, Frolik, Bolland in the bottom-6

      2015 Sharp, Teuvo, Vermette, Kruget, Shaw

      2016 Penguins had a 3rd line of Hagelin, Bonino, & Kessel.

      People always talk about defensemen depth is needed to win Cups, but forward depth has seemed more important or at least undervalued by the general public.

      So is signing Panarin even worth it as it hurts team depth so much?

      The problem is, CHI needs snipers. They need Panarin. CHi is lacking in guys who can put the puck into the net.

      The problem is $16M tied up in Seabrook, Anisimov, and Kruger.

      Extending Panarin is much more valuable to the team than extending the above players. But CHI valued the above players and it cost Chicago the likes of Saad and Nick Leddy and it will probably cost them Panarib.

      Lastly, as I’m really just rambling here. Imagine Panarin signs a $6M deal. The Panarin-Anisimov-Kane line would be worth around $21M per year. That’s 29% of this years cap in one line. It’s hard to have forward depth with that much money in one line, and not much top-15 draft pick talent in the pipeline.

      End of ramble.

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  3. Yeah, I think I can agree with you that if Panarin has to go, it better be after a cup win. Kane and Toews are still too skilled and expensive to be wasted on a team with no hope for a cup win. Even guys like Keith and Hossa probably have another good year or two in them before they become expensive depth players and Crawford is playing the best of his career right now. If we miss out on the chance to at least make it to the finals again in the last year of Panarin’s ELC, all the money going in and out of the organization since 2015 will have been for naught.

    I agree with you that offensive talent is definitely important for the win, but unfortunately for 2015-16, our playoff weakness was obviously defense. I really can’t figure out what was so bad about Erhoff that they didn’t feel he was worth keeping on the roster, but certainly choosing to start Round 1 with Svedburg (who is a fine 6th man regular season D) over Gustafson was a terrible decision. What’s most disappointing though is that after showing such potential, we missed a healthy shot at the Finals by a likely difference of 1 second pairing D spot (plus Seabrook playing terrible and Keith looking incredibly fatigued/injured). And after all of it, it seems like we ended up spending just as much on Daley, Scuderri and Erhoff as we would have on a known quantity in Oduya, and we STILL have to pay off Scuderri!

    I’ll say one other thing about what I think ended up costing the Hawks – way too much 1st line pairing changes throughout the year. How many guys did we have to go through for Q to just figure out we weren’t going to have the same quality as we did with Saad on 1LW? I think it really destroyed Toews’ consistency, and Hossa is getting too old to have to chase down pucks after a new linemate gets stuck. Panik was clearly begging for his shot in this position, but didn’t get the time of day until late in the 1st Round. And I won’t even get into how underutilized I think Fleishman and Weiss were— I’m still amazed they haven’t picked up Flash on what would likely be a great $700k depth player.

    Sorry, how’s that for rambling?…

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    1. Pretty good ramble. So good I probably can’t remember to reply to everything.

      Fleischmann faded down the stretch. He looked so good early but his performance continued to decline over time. I’ve been told by many that, that is his calling card.

      The Tuevo-Toews-Hossa line did pretty well in the regular season. They were on the ice for 7 goals for and 1 goal against during even strength and had good possession numbers. That line didn’t last long for some reason.

      The Ladd-Kruger-Hossa line seemed to be good in the playoffs. Really great checking line.

      The Ladd-Toews-Hossa line was atrocious.

      But it was funny, 82-game season, Q sends all the rookies back to Rockford before the playoffs and it seemed he had no idea what he wanted to do. Like its exam day and Q forgot to study and he’s like “Shit, Shit, Shit, okay we’ll just put Svedberg here and pair Rundblad with Keith and just throw this line and this line together.”

      On Ehrhoff, he just isn’t that good. Like he looks good to the eye. He’s out there with the puck on his stick a lot making plays, but his underlying numbers are pretty bad. I apologize that I can’t remember what that stats were, but I was looking at all defensemen over that past couple years and the top-10 vs Bottom-10 in every stay and I kept seeing Ehrhoff in the bottom-10 worse D-man in the league in some stats. Again, I apologize for not remembering what the stats were.

      But Ehrhoff is more of a 4th forward than an actual defensemen. He holds on to the puck way too long. He plays the puck too much. If you like basketball, think of a shitty point guard that never passes the rock, plays poorly, but he’s makes some sweet plays, but that’s just cause he has the basketball so often, never gives it up. Ball hog. He might make some nice plays, but he hurts the overall team performance.

      That’s somewhat like Ehrhoff. Skates with the puck too much. Has some good offensive qualities to his game. Has horrible defensive awareness and IQ.

      I just looked up to see if I could quickly find one of the stats. One of them is Goals for%. So during even strength this past season, Ehrhoff’s team scored 39% of all goals when he was on the ice meaning opponents scored 61% of all goals when he was on the ice. That was 6th worse last season.

      He’s considered an offensive defensmen, but when he was on the ice this seasons at even strength, his team only scored 1.51 goals per 60 minutes. That is the 6th worse goal generation numbers of all defensemen last season with at least 500 even strength minutes.

      He’s just really not that good. But like the ball hogging point guard, sometimes it looks really good, but overall it’s hurting the team.

      That obviously just my opinion. Not saying I’m right or wrong about anything. Just giving my opinion.

      What else? Oh yeah ELC’s I had this sweet post taking about how to win a cup in the cap era. It’s all about having high value players. Having players with cap hits lower than their actual value.

      Hossa and Duncan Keith’s cap hits of $5ish million has been below their actual output value. Hossa although probably not anymore.

      Brandon Saad playing top line minutes was a $6M player playing on an ELC, that’s an extremely good value.

      If a team has many players that play better than their cap hits warrant, a team can win the cup.

      CHi has had like $100 million worth of value playing for $70 million in actual cap expenditures.

      Now we have Toews and Kane at $10.5, no longer a great value.

      Kruger at $3M and Seabrook at $7M are poor values.

      Years of traded draft picks and 30th overall picks result in not many ELC extreme values.

      Luckily Chicago has been able to adapt and find value elsewhere. Panarin, Gustafsson, Kempny through scouting Europe.

      Campbell through proximity to home and whatever one wants to call it, team pride. Having close friends on the team. Etc.

      But that’s how I basically look at teams these days. Which players are providing a net positive vs net negative value.

      In past years, CHI has had some many elite talents playing well below their actual performance would warrant through the market.

      So now, forward depth is lacking and they need to get some high net value ELC players somewhere. That’s what’s so tough about having to trade away guys like Teuvo who played last season like a $3M player for $975,000 or whatever it was.

      As for the defense, I think it’s fine this season. Last year it was obviously a glaring hole. Q wouldn’t trust Gustafsson,
      Tried to force the atrocious TVR-Seabrook pairing and played Rozsival too much in the regular season that he was too fatigued to provide anything in the playoffs.

      The additions of Campbell and Kempny are huge.

      Campbell-Seabrook is a perfect match as an offensive defenseman pairing.

      Kempny-TVR is a very reliable and solid 3rd pairing that can be trusted with defensive responsibilities that normal 3rd pairings couldn’t. Q won’t have to protect/shelter his 3rd pairing this season. Then you add Pokka and Gustafsson in the AHL and the D core has great depth and is markedly improved.

      Unfortunately, the forward group is worse than last season before CHI even added Ladd, Wiese, and Fleichmann.

      CHI will have to move Pokka or Forlsing plus a 2018 draft pick for a top-6 forward this season.

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  4. Yeah, I guess I do recall a number of times when Erhoff held too long or just made a terrible pass decision. I was probably remembering the times when he made some great puck moving plays too favorably.

    I definitely agree that in cap-era NHL, you really have to work magic with ELC players, but with it remaining stagnant for so long, I am really beginning to wonder how the next few crops of A-level talent are going to get the paychecks they deserve, being that most teams by now have 1/3 of their cap tied up in their top 3. I guess maybe guys like McDavid and Panarin will all end up as the faces of teams like Toronto or the Coyotes or Hurricanes, but it’s certainly not looking good for any of the big franchises once the Kanes, Ovi’s and Crosby’s are all in their mid 30s and still making 10% of the teams total cap.

    What’s funny about agreeing with this theory though, is that Pittsburgh somehow managed to fill their roster with the likes of Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Kessel, Fleurry (not that they needed him) AND get quality help from their 3rd and 4th lines while having a solid defense all around. So they basically had the best of both worlds.

    And I’ll agree that Toews at $10.5 is very quickly approaching burdensome, but I’ll gladly keep Kane for his entire career for the same. I really am sad though that we won’t get to see what Tuevo turns into in a few years (at least not in our favor). Once he bulks up a bit like Kane did over the years (and gets to play the position he’s most comfortable in rather than being the Swiss Army Knife) he’s likely to be in Kessel/Malkin/Toews/Sharp(~2013 era) territory. And since his number were not outwardly spectacular, we likely could have gotten him at least on a bridge deal for $2 to $2.5mil, seeing him playing at a $5-$6mil level by the end of his deal.

    Anyway, I still have hopes that we can magically pull one more cup out of thin air.

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