Blackhawks rank 19th in Corsi For % this season. The team isn’t outshooting opponents like they did in previous Stanley Cup seasons. There has been a total role reversal as the core has aged and other talent lost. Chicago is now a team that consistently gets out shot and out played by opponents.
Expected goals estimate shot quality by taking an in depth look at where every shot on the ice took place. Shot distance and angle are a couple of the main factors that are used for this stat. Every shot receives a rating for its expectancy to be a goal. Add those shot ratings for and against and we have an outlook on each teams shot quality.
Minnesota is a good example to use. They are ranked 20th, one behind Chicago, in shots or Corsi. When it comes to Expected Goals For %, the Wild rank second in the NHL.
It’s actually pretty simple. Think of “high danger chances”. The shots that occur in the slot near the net that have a high chance of being a goal. Even though Minnesota doesn’t outshoot opponents (20th in Corsi remember), they take many high danger chances offensively while not giving up that many defensively. The Expected Goals stat takes note of this and that is why Minnesota vaults up the NHL rankings in this stat.
Think of eXpected goals as an advanced Scoring Chance stat if that makes it simpler for you to comprehend.
Does Chicago have good shot quality?
NO! They give up LOTS of high danger chances. Luckily, their goaltending has bailed out the teams poor play (see next table)
Everyone knows that Corey Crawford and Scott Darling has saved the Blackhawks this season, so lets look at some other teams.
Buffalo is a surprise at 5th.
Check out the Dallas Stars ranked 6th. Niemi and Lehtonen haven’t been their problem this season.
The St. Louis Blues can’t get a save. Jake Allen looks to be a good, above league average capable goalie, but he has had an awful season.
They signed Carter Hutton this offseason. Hutton, a 31-year-old with a career .907 save percentage (all situations) seems like an odd choice to sign to a 2-year contract with a cap hit of $1.125 Million per season.
What’s Hutton’s save % this season?
Above are my all star break 5v5 power rankings based on various 5v5 stats.
Minnesota vs Washington Stanley Cup Final?
Nashville vs Montreal / Subban vs Weber?
Sharks vs Penguins rematch?