Given his current trajectory – and his status as an RFA with arbitration rights – what will it take to sign Panik after the 2016-17, based on comparables throughout the league?
One wouldn’t believe how tough this question is. There are so many comparable one could look at. These elite players had similar age-25 seasons. These no names had similar age-25 seasons. There are quality players like Adam Henrique, Tomas Tatar, and Brock Nelson who have had similar seasons. Then there is Tobias Rieder, Bryan Rust, and Brandon Pirri.
There is so much variance when looking at comparable, so I’m going to try and simplify things.
First lets see what type of player Richard Panik is via his HERO chart.
He appears to be a third line quality forward in every sense except for goal scoring. He can put the puck in the net like a first liner.
His points recorded per season is:
- 2012-13: 9
- 2013-14: 13
- 2014-15: 17
- 2015-16: 8
- 2016-17: 36 and counting
So he will probably reach the forty point mark this season, but it’s something he hasn’t historically done.
I know I’m simplifying things a lot, but sometimes it’s good to do so with contracts.
A third line level forward, who just turned 26-years-old, had a somewhat breakout season with over 40-points coming off a 1-year, $875,000 contract.
I think it’s too soon for him to reach the $3M mark that we see quality third liners get paid.
That being said, he should produce more points this season than Andrew Shaw ever has in a season (38). Thats a very simple Blackhawks centric example to put in perspective Panik’s scoring this season.
In the end, I would guess a short contract with a cap hit around $2M. I would put the range from $1.5-$2.5 million. Obviously if it’s on the higher end of that scale, he won’t be a Blackhawk next season. He’s due a raise, but hasn’t had the track record to get paid what a good third liner gets paid in todays NHL yet.